Premortems in product management; why pessimism pays

Product managers strive to ensure the success of their products — but even the most carefully planned and executed product launches can fall short of expectations. While you can’t control everything, planning premortem exercises when you kick off new projects will mitigate risk.

Lean into the negative

I always say product managers are the most negative people on a product team. When user testing, we prefer to know what users don’t like, over gathering feedback on what works well – and project planning is no different. The goal of a premortem exercise is to imagine that your product launch has failed, and then to identify the possible causes of that failure. Essentially, it’s running with worst-case scenarios – fun!

The benefit of this negativity is that you identify potential risks and problems that could impact the success of your product launch. This approach enables you to get ahead of potential problems early, so you can take steps to address them before they become serious.

Tips for conducting a successful premortem exercise:

1. Set the stage

To begin, gather your team and explain the purpose of the premortem exercise. Make sure everyone understands that the goal is not to criticise or place blame, but rather to identify potential problems and develop strategies to address them.

When planning a new project kickoff at Planes, I include a premortem in both the internal and client workshops. This “worst-case scenario” thinking exercise can be a good ice breaker and fits into the flow of a kickoff meeting. The more your team can align on this way of thinking at the start of a project, the more they’ll work towards the same goal.

2. Imagine the worst-case scenario

Ask your team to imagine that the product launch has failed. What went wrong? What factors contributed to the failure? Encourage your team to think creatively and identify as many potential problems as possible.

What do potential problems look like? Here are a few choice examples, taken from sessions I have run which cover communication issues, poor strategy, and technical concerns:

• “Not having a collaborative process – team feeling as though they have no say in the end product” – Client / Key Stakeholder
• “Product doesn’t speak to our audience because we didn’t establish primary users.”  – Product Manager / Project Lead
• “Complex legal requirements dropped in late in the project that have substantial tech implications.” – Senior Developer

Top Tip: Run a “best case” brainstorm alongside this, to inspire ideas and establish guiding stars.

3. Brainstorm solutions

Once you have identified potential problem areas, it’s time to get into the possible solutions. Encourage your team to think outside the box and come up with innovative solutions to the problems they have identified.

Concerns can vary from project to project but let’s take the example comments above as a starting point:

• The client is worried about team contribution/communication
• The product manager is anxious about the users
• The developer is concerned about unknown requirements that could increase work and push out the deadline.

Now there’s transparency over the potential risks, use ‘How Might We’ statements to brainstorm solutions together. For the above, these might look like:

• “How might we ensure cross-team collaboration”
• “How might we prioritize the RIGHT user for the MVP launch?”
• “How might we mitigate risks for development?”

4. Prioritise

Once you have a list of potential problems and solutions, prioritise them based on the impact they may have on the success of the product launch. Focus on the problems that are most likely to occur and have the greatest impact.

The prioritisation task should begin by grouping your concerns under relevant categories, these could be things like communication, project management, and user experience. Once you’ve grouped the categories, assess which risks have the greatest impact for the launch, you can then set about solving the biggest concerns first – like team communication and product strategy.

5. Develop a plan

Finally, develop a plan for addressing the potential problems you have identified. Assign responsibilities and set deadlines for implementing the solutions you have developed. Make sure everyone on your team understands their role in ensuring the success of the product launch.

A set of priorities may look like:

• Commitment to overwhelming honesty – making sure this comes through in communication and ensuring transparency over any issues.

• Keep it simple – having a good and reliable product for MVP

• Mandatory stakeholder attendance at retros + key meetings

Premortems help you to de-risk

Premortem exercises are an excellent way to identify potential risks that could affect the success of your product launch. By sprinkling in a bit of pessimism and conducting a premortem exercise, you can develop strategies to mitigate those risks and increase the likelihood of a successful launch.