What lies in store for Threads?

Almost two months on from the launch of Threads, what have we learned? What is Meta’s plan for the app, how is it faring as a rival to X, the social network formerly known as Twitter, and what, if anything, does it teach us about launching products?

Threads launched with a bang on 5 July. It broke records to become the fastest growing app ever, gaining 100 million users in the week following its launch. Since then active user numbers and retention have tailed off.

A flying start

According to Similarweb numbers shared with Gizmodo, the number of Threads daily active users sat at about 49 million two days after launch, and had plummeted to 9.6 million by the start of August. On July 6, time spent on the app in all available markets was about 14 minutes a day, and this had dropped to 2.3 minutes by the start of August. A huge initial burst of enthusiasm before people went back to their old ways.

The launch of Threads was well-timed – an old-fashioned kick ‘em when they’re down tactic – but its functionality is limited. There are lots of features still missing from Threads that the legions of disenchanted Twitter users (according to some estimates over a million users have left the platform since Elon Musk bought it) might have hoped to see at launch. There were plenty of analyses on what was missing from Threads at launch. This article, Threads active users drop revealing lack of original content, and this article, Pulling at the Seams: How is Threads Keeping Up? for example, look at what was missing and suggest that Threads needs to do more than offer what’s available elsewhere to succeed.

A long game

We should remember the power of inertia. It takes a lot of resources and a compelling user experience to unseat an entrenched market leader, no matter how much of its shine it has lost. However new features and functionality are being added to Threads all the time, and this news release from Meta indicates the rate at which new features are being added. We must assume that Meta is relying on its heft and its abilities to engage its users long term to play a long game.

The financial markets appear to like Meta at the moment and its latest set of results show it has returned to double-digit growth. It has invested heavily in AI, and, according to The Motley Fool,  there is a sense of optimism about the company’s trajectory.

A super app future?

What’s the end game for Meta though? For that perhaps we need to look at Elon Musk’s ambitions for X. Musk’s interest in developing a super app has long been known. The rebranding of Twitter to X is another step along this path, as this article from The Verge, For Elon Musk, X equals everything, details, and this more recent announcement, Musk Says X Will Offer Video and Audio Calls in Move Toward Super-App, confirms.

Many suggest that Meta has a similar ambition. Last year Mark Zuckerberg unveiled a number of updates that make it easier for WhatsApp users to find, message and buy from businesses.  The updates were launched in Brazil, a country seen as ready for the super apps like WeChat and Gojek, already widely used in Asia. This article, Meta’s WhatsApp Takes Another Step Toward ‘Super App’ Status with Commerce Enhancements, outlines the updates.

But is it likely that super apps will find receptive audiences in more mature markets?  Opinions vary. A recent article from Forrester Research, The Super App Window Has Closed, thinks not. It finds that super apps like WeChat exploited first-mover advantages. The analyst says they were in the right place at the right time and served a trusting user base that needed them, very much not the case today. Forrester says that: “Firms should steer away from building a super app and instead invest in creating a robust mobile strategy.”

But a 2022 study from PayPal and PYMNTS found that many consumers in mature markets would be interested in using a super app to replace the half dozen or so they use at the moment. This Harvard Business Review article, Are Super Apps Coming to the US Market? sets out why super apps haven’t found favour in the US so far, but suggests that attitudes may be changing. It predicts that while we won’t see Asian-style super apps in mature markets, there will be appetite for super-ish apps – ones with super-app like ecosystems.